Setting the 8th Rule Free
The indicator that started this whole publication is now public on TradingView. Thank you for being early.
No More Black Box: MRE Edition
Live 14-day $SPY OHLC view + daily vote distribution for the MRE v0.6 engine.
Issue #53: The Last Hawk Standing
Every other central bank is cutting. The Fed is alone in the corner.. and inflation just walked back into the room.
No More Black Box.
Six cells. Three positions. Read the decision tree yourself.
SIGNAL CHANGE: Arsenal ETH
A new position is live. Here’s what changed and why.
Chat is live. Sub-only. Let's operate.
I'm rolling out a new feature on the Substack: the DurdenBTC subscriber chat.
Issue #52: The $400B Bazooka Nobody's Talking About
The Fed isn't cutting. The Treasury is. Here's the receipt.
MRE V6.. I Almost Shipped The Wrong Engine
A story of ruin before glory, all for a ~1% pareto improvement.
MRE v5: Sharpe just crossed 1.0
Found a silent data bug. Fixing it improved every metric.
SIGNAL CHANGE: Arsenal $ETH
A new position is live. Here’s what changed and why.
Pipeline Upgrade: How I Killed The Arsenal Repaint Bug
Signal hygiene: yfinance was lying to us.
Issue #51: All Systems Green.. The Arsenal Goes Live
Macro Regime Engine just hit 24 bullish votes, the SPY Arsenal flipped fully green, and every subscriber now has the keys.
SIGNAL CHANGE: Arsenal $ETH
A new position is live. Here’s what changed and why.
Arsenal BTC v2: The Engine Got an Upgrade
I nearly burnt my CPU into the fiery brimstone of 8-core hell.. but it was worth it.
Issue #50: All Green, Bears Cooked
Every macro print lit up green while bears keep shorting the most historic negative funding rate in Bitcoin history.
I Ran 6 Forward-Tests On The Macro Regime Engine (V5).. Here's What They Said
A backtest is history with nice hindsight. It tells you what did happen if you ran this system across 23 years of markets. What it can't tell you is the one thing you actually want to know.
Members-Only: Macro Regime Engine v5.0
Why I'm going 50% on Bitcoin tonight when the 8th Rule says 100%.. and why I'm okay with that.
MRE V5: The Engine Got an Upgrade. And It's Saying Risk-On.
The engine that kept us in cash just got replaced by one that never would have taken us out.
Issue #48: The Split Decision
I built two systems. They disagree. One potentially says go long. The other says 29-to-3 bearish. I have to choose.
SIGNAL CHANGE: The 8th Rule Has Spoken
A new position is live. Here's what changed and why.
I Ran 87 Million Backtests on Bitcoin
What survived is coming to the paid tier.
Issue #47: The One Green Light
Everything in my system is red except one asset.. and it's not Bitcoin.
New Settings Unlocked: The 8th Rule for Ethereum ($ETH)
Sharpening the blades on crypto's #2 while the world burns.
Important Signal Alert Update
Signal alerts will now be delayed for free subscribers by 48 hours going forward.
The Macro Regime Engine: How I Built a System That Sidestepped Every Major Crash & Outperformed Buy & Hold Since 1999
This is the full story. The obsession, the failures, the rebuild, and where we are now.. 26 years of backtested history, 38 trades, a 9.75% max drawdown, and a system I trust with my own capital.
Issue #46: They Laughed. The Market Didn't.
Two weeks since the risk-off signal, the slide continues.. and the doubters are quiet now.
New Settings Unlocked: The 8th Rule for Gold ($GLD)
You didn't ask for this, but I delivered anyway.
Binary Signals Are for Tourists. Here's What Institutions Actually Run.
I built an institutional-grade vol-targeting engine, wired it into my Macro Regime Engine, and discovered the portfolio split I should have been running all along.
SIGNAL CHANGE: Gold Risk Off
Selling 20% position in $GLD & $GDX
Issue #45: The Rebuild
I haven't slept in a week, I'm selling my last position, and the Fed just put rate hikes back on the table.
Macro Regime Engine: Monte Carlo & Walk-Forward Results
Spent the last week rebuilding the MRE in Python & Javascript so I'd be able to run forward analysis and the results were nothing short of brilliant.
Issue #44: The 37th Signal
The Macro Regime Engine just fired its rarest alarm, and I sold everything but gold.
New Settings Unlocked: The 8th Rule for U.S. Equities ($SPX)
You've asked. I've delivered.
The Quiet Edge: How I Squeeze Extra Return on Capital With a Bull Put Spread Options Sleeve
Today I'm going to pull back the curtain on exactly how it works, why the research says it should work, and why I only run it under specific macro conditions.
SIGNAL CHANGE: Macro Regime Engine Risk Off
Selling 40% position in $SPYM, 20% position in $ACWX.
Issue #43: The Engine Turns Red
For the first time since December, the Macro Regime Engine is bearish.. and Tuesday might be the day I sell everything.
Scam Alert, Beware of Impostors
I guess I should be flattered...
Something's coming.
Built for the paranoid. Priced for the curious.
Issue #42: Every Metric Says Buy. My System Says No.
Bitcoin pumped 10%, my timeline lost its mind, and I didn’t move a muscle. Here’s what the data actually says.
I Forward-Tested the 8th Rule. Here's What 10,000 Simulations Say.
Monte Carlo, Walk-Forward, and Synthetic Price Paths: three methods, one question: is the edge real?
Issue #41: GDP Crashed and I'm Smiling
Growth just fell off a cliff, Bitcoin's still bearish, and somehow that's exactly what the bulls needed.
No Shirts, No Shoes
The 6th Rule is live, and DurdenBTC has a new home.
I Spent 48 Hours Reverse-Engineering a $2,000/Year Institutional Signal. Here's Why I'm Not Using It.
The [Trend Model]. [Redacted]'s crown jewel. I cracked it open, rebuilt it from scratch, and then did something most quants won't admit to.
Issue #40: The Great Duality & The Defeated Bull
The timeline is split, rate cuts just got nuked, and even the perma-bulls are finally starting to look tired.. let’s look at the data.
Issue #39: The Death of the Hard Cap (And How We Dodged the Nuke)
Why our system forced an exit at $84k and why the "21 Million" scarcity narrative might be mathematically broken.
My System Exited the S&P 500 the Week Before COVID Crashed the Market.
Most investors rely on headlines. This system relies on math. A breakdown of the raw momentum data that forced a defensive exit 23 days before the bottom.
The Eighth Rule: Under the Hood
A bug fix, a short-selling option, and why I'm not using it.
FLASH UPDATE: Pending Bitcoin Sell Signal
Releasing an early flash update because I will be traveling today & away this weekend.
The Eighth Rule: Fixing My Biggest Bitcoin Flaw
GVTS & VATs combined for higher returns, less drawdown and increased RoC. All systems still green.
FLASH VIDEO UPDATE: Subscribers Only
Previewing the new combined GVTS + VATs indicator & explaining the changes.
New Indicator Unlocked: Vol-Adjusted Trend Signal
Conservative indicator for those more risk-averse to the swings & volatility of Bitcoin.
The Macro Regime Engine: 26 Years, 6,941% Return, 5.96% Max Drawdown
How a systematic multi-asset voting system turned $100k into $7M by trading regimes, not headlines.
Goldilocks Returns & My Dual Trend Bitcoin Signal is Now Free
The Macro Regime engine hit an all-time high in votes, alts flash a 2019-style bottom signal, and I’m giving away an indicator that beats buy & hold.
GVTS Improvements & The "Ghost" Signal Fix
We stay prepared or we get left behind. We sharpen our swords daily. The battle is constant; alpha always decays.
The "Banana Zone" Lied & The ISM Disappointed
Still risk-on & still in our Bitcoin long trade; let's break down the data for this week.
Optimization Update: How We Just Squeezed More Alpha Out of the System
A look under the hood at the latest optimization, why I wasn't happy with 2025, and the new metrics.
The Powder Keg vs. The Pilot: Why I’m Long in a Market Screaming "Crash"
The data says we are standing on the edge of a cliff. My system says we are still flying. Here is how I reconcile the two.
FLASH UPDATE: Gaussian Volatility Trigger [EXECUTE]
Subscribers only update.
2026 Kickoff: Prepare for Risk-On Bitcoin
Ensure your tray tables are upright & your seatbelts are fastened. It's time to lock in.
Goldilocks has Arrived: The "Holy Grail" Engine Reveal
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
The Ghost in the Machine: How I Built a Holy Grail Macro Regime Engine
This engine beats buy and hold by 375% with a max drawdown of 14.83% with ~1.2 trades per year on the S&P500 backtested to 1997.
Flash Signal & Portfolio Update for December 19th
Working on a long Macro Regime Engine article so this week will just be signal & portfolio updates.
The Fed Just Blinked: The $40B “Stealth” Ramp & The Bitcoin Divergence
Liquidity is hitting new all-time highs, but Bitcoin is lagging. Here is why the "Green Light" just flashed and how I am positioning for the January effect.
Bitcoin’s Signals Don’t Match.. And This Week Proved It
Another week, another set of macro signals that refuse to line up.
Building a Tactical Macro Regime Engine That Actually Survives the Backtest
My journey coding an indicator for TradingView that would’ve sidestepped the bulk of every major drawdown since 2000 and performed like B&H.
Your Portfolio Isn’t a Bet. It’s a Survival Plan. Because Regimes Decide Who Lives.
How I Actually Think About Markets, Regimes, and Wealth Building
This Bitcoin Signal Hasn’t Flashed Since 2022…
“Every major drawdown starts with disbelief.. and data most people ignore.”
🧠 Risk-Off Triggered: Why I’m Sitting in Full Cash
“Sometimes the best trade is to not trade.”
Santa Rally Denied: Is Bitcoin Near a Bottom?
🎅 Markets are hanging tinsel, but the charts aren’t in the holiday spirit.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads. Price Action vs Macro.
Bitcoin may have more pain to come. Survival first, profit later.
Top Is In? Sell It All? Hardly..
Liquidity writes the plot, narratives chase the credits.
Delayed, Not Derailed
Liquidity drives the cycle. Narratives just write the headlines. We have a slew of charts this week so let's get into it.
This Might Be Bitcoin’s Last Buying Opportunity
If you felt that pit-of-stomach fear this week… good. That’s where real entries live.
Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows? The 8-Month Tell
Gold’s still leading but the ratio tells the real story. CT’s day-count prophets are coping. Here’s the real map for next week’s tape.
Liquidity Cascade, Fed Rates Locked, Retail Missing
Three major catalysts are all syncing up perfectly for a violently bullish Bitcoin Q4 backdrop going into the end of the year.
$103K BTC? Why That’s THE Buy Signal of the Cycle
Nasdaq’s sprinted ahead. Bitcoin lagged. Liquidity blinked. That gap won’t stay open for long.
Hawkish Cut, Bullish Tape: Bitcoin’s Window Opens
The Fed blinked, credit cheered, and Bitcoin is shadowing Big Tech like a high-beta mirror. If equities run into year-end, BTC is set to rip. If they roll, brace for a sharper drawdown.
Panic Prints → Bitcoin Rips: The 'Real' Bull Run Begins Now
With the RRP drained, the FED has no choice but to end QT officially and flip to QE. Opens the spigots for liquidity, extremely bullish for risk assets.
FED Panic Mode: Liquidity Flips, Bitcoin on Stand-By
Global liquidity (M2) ticked higher and my Macro & Liquidity Regime flipped risk-on; cycle phase = expansion.
Liquidity Reset: Why BTC Could Dip to $104K Before $128K
Short-term blood, Q4 melt-up setup.
Powell at Jackson Hole — Bitcoin Cleared For Takeoff
Welcome back to the Bitcoin Macro War Room, where we cut through the noise, decode the week’s economic warfare, and map out what it means for Bitcoin’s next leg.
Rate Cuts Could Ignite the Biggest BTC Rally Ever
This week was a classic Bitcoin rollercoaster.. pump early, dump mid-week, and a market now staring straight down the barrel of a liquidity shift.
🧨 OTC Bitcoin Supply Is Drying Up: The Clock Is Ticking
This week was quieter on the data front. But don’t mistake silence for irrelevance — beneath the surface, liquidity is shifting, the Fed is blinking, and OTC Bitcoin supply is nearing zero.
Global M2 Is Climbing So Why Is Bitcoin Risk-Off?
Bitcoin has officially broken from global M2 liquidity for the first time all year.
📉 Bitcoin Has Decoupled from Global M2 — Snapback Rally or Regime Shift?
Liquidity models are cracking. If M2 no longer drives Bitcoin, what does? The divergence is real. Now comes the decision: reversion or revolution.
💧 Introducing the Global M2 Liquidity Tracker — Now Free on TradingView
I just launched the Global M2 Liquidity Tracker, a free, powerful tool built to give you real-time clarity on the macro fuel that drives every rally and dump.
🧠 Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Incoming — Are Alts About to Explode?
Another week, another macro fakeout — unless you were paying attention.
📡 Bitcoin at All-Time Highs: Is This Cycle Euphoria or Just Getting Started?
The M2 Monster Returns: Why Bitcoin Broke Out Before Crypto Week
🧠 Welcome to The Macro War Room
If you’ve ever watched Bitcoin rip 40% in two weeks and thought “wait… what just happened?” — this is the newsletter that explains it before it happens.
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