TL;DR
Fed cut 25 bps, tone hawkish. Market priced it, liquidity backdrop still improves.
Data mixed but resilient. Retail sales beat, claims cooled, Empire weak, Philly strong.
Credit says risk-on. High yield spreads low, HYG breaking out.
Global liquidity tilts positive. BoE slows QT, PBOC injects.
BTC≃NDX. Correlation is tight. Santa rally = ATH risk. NDX rollover = BTC downside.
The tape I care about:
Bitcoin’s September strength is an anomaly, but month isn’t over. The Macro Regime Tracker dipped to its lower rail, long-term signal still constructive. Keep powder dry, don’t over-position into month-end.
Liquidity and credit
BoE: Rate hold, QT slowed and skewed away from long gilts. Marginally supportive for global liquidity.
PBOC: ¥487B 7-day reverse repo injection, policy rate unchanged. Liquidity via OMOs, not rate cuts.
Credit risk tone: HY OAS is low, HYG broke out of a year-long base. Credit is confirming equities. That is typically bullish beta, including BTC.
On-chain and dollar lens
DXY trend filter: Still bullish for risk. Dollar easing tailwind remains.
STH realized price: Bounce held into early September, structure supportive.
MVC / cycle gauges: MVC not crossed 365-DMA yet, so the “full-send” signal isn’t on.
What flips me
NDX trend break with dollar strength and widening HY spreads.
PMIs roll hard and claims trend higher, not one-off noise.
Liquidity pullback from BoE/PBOC, or US issuance that soaks reserves.
If this helped, share it and subscribe so you get the War Room before the next print hits. Comments open — what are you watching into PMIs and quarter-end?
For the full video breakdown:
💥 Stay sharp. Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.
— Durden out.
✊🧼
Not financial advice. Manage risk. The market’s real engine is liquidity.
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