Issue #40: The Great Duality & The Defeated Bull

Executive Summary & Important Highlights

Happy Friday. If you look at the timeline this week, there is a clear line drawn in the sand. On one side, you have the “Generational Bottom” camp claiming we never go lower. On the other, the “Flush to $30k” squad.

Who is right? We don’t guess.. and honestly, I couldn’t care less. We follow the systems.

This week was heavy on macro data and psychological shifts. We saw inflation data cool, but a positive unemployment print effectively nuked the odds of a March rate cut. We also witnessed a rare moment of capitulation from some of the loudest bulls in the space.

Key Highlights:

• The Fed Pivot: March rate cut odds have dropped from 20% to 10% following the unemployment data.

• Portfolio Update: I was “forced” to buy Bitcoin this week via an options assignment (more on that below).

• Sentiment: The “Perma-Bulls” (I’m looking at you Tom Lee) are looking defeated, acknowledging that despite “tailwinds,” price action is terrible.

• New Alpha: I’m teasing a new volatility-based indicator focused purely on risk-adjusted returns.

• Equities: We are still Long and holding positions, though the inflation model gained a few bearish votes (Count: 29 Bullish / 12 Bearish).

• Gold: Still Bullish. The chart looks insane, and we remain in our position.

• Volatility: The VIX spiked above 20 today. Under the surface, the MOVE Index (bond volatility) also spiked, potentially signaling a bottom in volatility.

Overall PNL Year-to-Date is down about 0.25%. We are preserving capital while the market chops up the impatient.

3. The “Checkmate” Stat On a positive note, on-chain analyst Checkmate pointed out that Bitcoin has only been this “cheap” relative to its 200-day moving average for about 6% of all trading days. If you are a DCA buyer with a 10-year horizon, these are value prices. If you are a trader, you wait for the trend.

Final Thoughts

We successfully round-tripped the whole bull market. If you held from the top, you are down 40-50%, and that hurts. It’s why we follow the systems ruthlessly.

I am currently back-testing a new binary dual system based on price momentum and volatility that dates back to the early 1900s. The goal isn’t just raw returns.. it’s Risk-Adjusted Returns. Anyone can make 50% using 10x leverage in a bull run; the goal is to keep it when the music stops.

I will post updates as I have more to share on the new indicator.

I’m sharpening my knives. When the trend changes, we will be ready to catch the tremendous move up. Until then, enjoy the weekend.

Access my free indicator here: Dual Signal Trend Sentinel [Link] & consider subscribing for access to The 8th Rule [Link].

For this weeks full video breakdown:

⚔️ Stay Sharp

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💥 Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.

— Durden out.

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