We nearly closed the “air gap” between Bitcoin and global liquidity (17% at peak) before one Wednesday print derailed momentum. Still, liquidity’s forward-looking picture has rebounded, pushing above trend.. and that keeps the macro bias firmly Risk-On.
Key Macro Data – What Mattered
CPI – Came in line with expectations. Core readings still tame, feeding the “rate cuts later this year” narrative.
PPI – 🔥 Scorcher at +0.9% vs +0.2% expected. This spooked bonds and pushed yields up temporarily — short-term liquidity drain, but not a regime breaker.
Empire State Manufacturing – Massive beat. Manufacturing momentum is ramping, potentially boosting ISM next month (one of my highest-signal indicators).
Rate Cut Odds – The Fed’s Boxed In
Futures are pricing a 92% probability of a September cut, with odds of a second cut by December.
The market knows the Fed’s trapped.. and the political cycle is making that trap smaller by the day.
Hot take: As soon as Powell’s tenure ends, expect his replacement to be ultra-dovish. 100bps in one shot isn’t off the table.
The Death of the Halving Cycle
Forget the four-year halving chart worship.
We’re in a mature market.. nation states, treasuries, and TradFi desks are the bid now. The real driver is the global business & debt refinancing cycle, not block reward schedules.
Based on current macro, I’m projecting the cycle top Q3 2026 or later, not this year.
On-Chain Snapshot
Risk Regime: 98% Risk-On (above)
Retail Demand: Collapsed (historically bullish)
Long-Term Holders: Quietly starting to bid
OTC Desk Balances: Down to 142k BTC — supply crunch setup is brewing
Durden’s Cycle Take
The Fed will cut into an expanding business cycle, not a recession. That’s a first in modern Bitcoin history.. and it’s rocket fuel.
Just listen to POTUS say the quiet part out loud in terms of the debt re-financing cycle: https://x.com/financelancelot/status/1956062862054490501
If you understand why they “want” 1% rates and how that ties to debt rollover, you’re ahead of 99% of market participants.
This is not the time to fade Bitcoin.
💬 Your Move:
Do you think the first rate cut sparks the parabolic phase… or sets a trap?
📊 Watch the full breakdown with charts & data here:
— Durden out.
✊🧼
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