Executive Summary: The War Room Briefing
Happy New Year. We are officially jacking into the 2026 market mainframe. This week’s debrief is centered on one reality: we are “this || close” to flipping the switch on a major Bitcoin long position. While retail is distracted by New Year’s noise, the Macro War Room is focused on the plumbing; specifically a blown-out SOFR spread and lack of any further TGA drawdown.
In the spirit of total 2026 accountability, I’m moving away from spreadsheet larping and sharing my live $120k portfolio. I am currently sitting on $33,000 in dry powder (cash), waiting for the system to give the green light on Bitcoin. We don’t guess; we follow the engine.
The Engine: Goldilocks Still Rules the Tape
Our primary Risk On/Risk Off engine just updated, and the verdict for stocks remains unchanged: We are in a Goldilocks/Reflation regime.
Stock Score: 12 for Goldilocks, 13 for Reflation.
Performance: This system boasts a profit factor of 17.09 with a mere 13% max drawdown since inception.
Gold Status: Still bullish, maintaining its position in the portfolio.
The macro backdrop is supportive for equities, but the “Air Gap” between forward earnings and PMIs suggests the jaws will eventually snap. We stay long until the score tells us otherwise. No discretion, just data.
Bitcoin Trend: The Gray Line Battle
The question everyone is asking: When moon? My system is currently neutral/cash (red bands). However, we are micro-inches away from the gray line that triggers a definitive long signal.
Current Bias: Technically bearish on-chain momentum, but the price trend is ready to potentially flip us long.
The Plan: I am not front-running this. I will continue to sit in cash until the bands flip green. Once they do, I’m rotating a 3-4% slice of my underperforming small-cap allocation directly into the BTC bucket.
Liquidation Watch: We see significant leverage stacked to the upside, with major hotspots around $86k.
The Indicator Hunt: Debunking the “Staircase”
I spent time this week backtesting popular “high-accuracy” algos from TradingView to see if they could beat my core system.
Supertrend EMA/RSI: Failed miserably. It’s too choppy and exits during clear uptrends.
Tailwind BTC (The “Staircase”): A better effort with a 431% PNL since 2018, but the 60% max drawdown is a portfolio killer.
The lesson? Specificity wins. Most retail indicators are just noise larping as alpha.
For the full breakdown check out this weeks video update:
Final Thoughts: Learn, Adapt, or Die
The SOFR spread is the “canary in the coal mine” right now. It’s showing liquidity stress that the Fed will eventually have to fix with a “liquidity bazooka” if it stays elevated.
We are entering 2026 with a clear head and a locked-in system. Don’t follow “whale alerts” that are just exchange wallet consolidations. Follow the math.
I’ll see you in the trenches next week.
⚔️ Stay Sharp
Follow the Macro War Room every Friday for the only Bitcoin analysis that treats markets like the battlefield they are.
👉 DurdenBTC.com for my dashboards + publicly available TradingView scripts.
👉 YouTube: DurdenBTC for the full weekly video.
👉 X: @DurdenBTC for real-time fire.
💥 Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.
— Durden out.
✊🧼
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