📰 This Week in Macro
This week had everything:
Unemployment claims ticked higher.. soft labor = dovish tilt, bullish for BTC.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slid into contraction.. another dovish data point.
But then… PMIs ripped higher, especially manufacturing. That’s the catch: expanding PMIs usually mean big risk-on moves for assets like Bitcoin… but they also give Powell cover to delay cuts.
Result? Fed cut odds slipped from nearly 90% to ~70% heading into Jackson Hole . Powell’s speech however was extremely dovish and now the odds are back near ~90%.
📊 Bitcoin Macro & Liquidity
Liquidity regime: Still firmly risk-on, even after this week’s dip.
Air gap: Over 35% now.. market stretched, but not yet breaking.
Correlations: 30D correlation negative (BTC unchained from GL short-term), while 90D/365D still solid .
Translation: Don’t fade the system. My risk model still shows 93% risk-on. In a bull market, “risk-off” flashes are spot-buying opportunities, not panic signals.
⚔️ Powell vs. The Market
Jackson Hole just concluded and markets liked what they heard. Bitcoin ripping back up above $116,800 as of this post. Let’s look at the landscape:
90% of global central banks are already easing.
The Fed is the lone hawk just turning dovish, they’re still addicted to reacting to lagging data.
They’re late. They will cut. The only question is when (odds are for Sept).
🔍 On-Chain Check
Retail is still buying, whales waiting. When long-term holders flip back to accumulation, expect momentum to shift.
Supply momentum spiked — historically signals local bottoms.
Realized price + smart DCA tools both still screaming “accumulate.”
Volatility continues to grind lower. This cycle will melt faces differently: slower, choppier, but more sustainable .
🧠 Big Picture
Cycle Top or 2026 Send? CT is split. My camp = slow grind → melt-up into Q1/Q2 2026.
Nation-states, sovereign wealth funds, public companies.. they don’t buy and flip. They’re smoothing Bitcoin’s volatility long-term.
Traders chasing parabolic dreams will get chopped to death. Long-term holders will win.
🗣 Tweets of the Week
Breadman: Sometimes our entire portfolios feel like a Ponzi + Saylor leverage play.. and yet, that’s the soundest trade out there.
Wicked: We’re a third through this epoch, but no cycle blow-off yet. This time really is different.
🎯 War Room Takeaways
Labor softening + weak regional manufacturing = dovish.
Hot PMIs = Fed hesitates, but cycle expansion = bullish.
Bitcoin liquidity system: 93% risk-on.
On-chain: retail still buying, supply momentum signaling bottoms.
Macro thesis intact: annoying grind now, melt-up into 2026.
Final Word
Powell pivoted to a dovish perspective at Jackson Hole. The U.S. is behind the curve & smart money knows it. Liquidity is shifting. The macro score is still flashing green. And Bitcoin? It’s not at the end of a cycle.. it’s just setting the stage for the real move.
💥 Stay sharp. Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.
— Durden out.
✊🧼
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