Big day. Happy Friday.
Quick housekeeping note: I have about 15 DM’s to get through and I’m extremely pressed for time today. I will get to everyone over the weekend, you have my word.
For weeks I’ve been running the Macro Regime Engine and the Arsenal stack locally on my own machine.. battle-testing every signal, every threshold, every edge case before letting any of it out into the wild. That ends today.
As of this morning, the entire signal stack.. Macro Regime Engine, Arsenal SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, US factor bets, QQQ.. is live for paid Substack subscribers.
A caveat before we get into it: this is still under active development. I’m still working out small bugs. Do not use the dashboard alone for portfolio changes yet.
Confirmed signal updates will continue to be pushed via Substack. Let it burn in for the rest of May. Substack remains the source of truth.
Now.. let’s get into the data.
The biggest call-out from the Arsenal stack: SPY flipped fully green. Bull put spreads remain in Enter mode.. meaning if you’re opening a spread, this is still the window.
The Stress Dashboard backs all of it up. Nothing lighting yellow. Nothing lighting red. Every panel is clean.
This is a heavy risk-on environment. Full stop.
Bitcoin Trend: Holding The Line
The Arsenal Bitcoin engine is still at 50%. No change. No flip. Just steady.
Diagnostic view for the skeptics.
The on-chain side is quietly constructive:
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase: Rising. Positive.
Long-Term Holders: Still accumulating.. though the rate has cooled slightly.
Retail: Near zero. Still on the sidelines.
Long-term momentum indicators: Continuing positive momentum off the bottoms.
The trend is intact and the holders aren’t budging.
The Data: GDP Miss, ISM Hold, And A Quiet Fed
It was a heavy data week. Here’s what actually mattered:
Released this week:
Advanced GDP: Missed by 0.2%
Core PCE Price Index: In line
Employment Cost Index: Higher by 0.1%
Unemployment Claims: Beat (lower).. positive at the margins
ISM Manufacturing: 52.7 vs 53.1 forecast.. basically identical to April, still expansionary
The Fed: Powell’s last presser. Rates unchanged. Kevin Warsh incoming.. too early to tell what that means for the vote balance, but the market clearly likes what it sees right now.
Rate cut odds:
June: 7% (basically locked at no cut)
July: 12.6%
September: 15%
Banana to my head.. rates stay flat through the summer unless something breaks.
Coming next week: Services PMI and the Unemployment Rate. Those are the two I’m watching.
Portfolio Update: Money Where The Mouth Is
You know the drill, receipts on the table.
Ethereum: Sold. Out of ETH per the signal flip last night.
Gold: Still in. Worst performer in the book right now. Small position, holding per the signal.
SPY: Third DCA tranche went in this week. Final tranche scheduled for next Thursday. Unless we get a real down day, in which case I’ll forward-run the last tranche.
Bull Put Spread: Three contracts only. Kept it light through Mag 7 earnings + FOMC. Everything sitting positive.
Final Thoughts
The main takeaway: the Macro Regime Engine is continuing to signal positive momentum in the voting, the Arsenal SPY just flipped fully green, and the data underneath.. stress dashboard, on-chain, macro releases, isn’t fighting the call.
A few housekeeping notes before I go:
IWM (Russell 2000 / small caps) is in final sweep.. should be added to the Arsenal stack by end of next week.
Arsenal SPY is getting another forward-test sweep. Some of the new numbers are coming back materially stronger than what’s currently published. Any changes will go out via Substack first.
Found a bug? DM me on Substack or hit me on X @DurdenBTC.
Tried to keep this one tight.. busy weekend ahead. Enjoy yours.
For this weeks full video breakdown:
— Durden out.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading equities and futures involves substantial risk of loss, including the potential for loss exceeding your initial investment.
Past performance, whether backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is designed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and does not account for all factors that may affect real-world execution.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
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