TL;DR
Thesis unchanged: Bitcoin tracks liquidity + business cycle (ISM); ISM remains sub-50 but turning, while liquidity mean-reverted after flirting with an EMA break. Historically, these reads have been prime add zones.
Structure: Risk-On dashboard still positive; DXY bounce = noise, not regime change.
Tactical: EW path allows a final dip toward 101–102k; risk/reward to start scaling long remains attractive.
Plumbing: RRP keeps draining; Powell signaled QT runoff ending → medium-term liquidity tailwind (with lags).
Cycle Map: Why I’m Still Bullish
Bitcoin follows the business cycle (ISM) and liquidity impulse. ISM <50 + improving, a softer dollar trend, and rebounding liquidity = the same recipe that powered this cycle’s 6× move. Zoom out, re-check your thesis, then act accordingly.
Liquidity & Regime: Blink, Don’t Break
The composite rebounded after threatening its 89-day EMA; into year-end I expect stabilization/expansion.
Regime tracker sits near the channel low but above 50—historically excellent add zones in bull cycles.
Translation: Risk-On with teeth, but not a straight line.
Elliott Wave: The “C” Box
Last week’s EW path sketched a 5-down into a C-wave target ~101–102k. We’ve already printed ~103.6k; it could be done, but I’m planning as if one more tag is possible. That’s where I’ll get more aggressive with my option overlays.
Fed, RRP, TGA: What the Pipes Are Saying
Powell turned dovish: signaling QT runoff end → easier conditions over time.
RRP ↓ and TGA dynamics matter: RRP down + TGA down = looser liquidity; the opposite tightens. The real economy needs time to transmit this to risk assets—liquidity doesn’t hit overnight.
On-Chain & Positioning: The Odd Couple
Long-term holders distributing while short-term holders accumulate—not my favorite bottom signature, but not a deal-breaker in a cycle uptrend.
Retail engagement ≈ zero; smart DCA signals flash “add in bull markets.”
Liquidations: 2-week/3-month maps mostly cleared; price is free to trend once the last EW pocket resolves.
Playbook: Exactly How I’m Trading It
Core: Hold spot. Thesis intact.
Adds: Begin scaling on weakness into 119–116k; get bolder near 101–102k if tagged.
Options (my personal plan):
Start DCA into June ’26 IBIT call verticals (keep theta sane), tranching on signal days.
I stopped selling covered calls into the drop.
Risk: Small, rolling tail hedge only during clear stress (e.g., SOFR-FF spread, funding tightness).
The Week Ahead: Data Drought → Data Flood
Shutdown delayed CPI/PPI/retail. As prints return, focus on liquidity reaction, not just headlines. Powell’s stance + improving activity = a path for ISM >50. If DXY fails to trend higher, beta re-rates.
System stays risk on, see below.
Notes From the Tape
This cycle is different: sustained institutional bid, fewer blow-off theatrics; returns came with time, not verticals.
“Bottom is in” vs “one more flush” is path dependency, not ideology. I’ll buy my levels and let the thesis work.
⚔️ Stay Sharp
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💥 Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.
— Durden out.
✊🧼
Not financial advice. Manage risk. The market’s real engine is liquidity.
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