📉 Bitcoin Has Decoupled from Global M2 — Snapback Rally or Regime Shift?

Welcome back to Durden’s Bitcoin Macro War Room — where we cut through the economic slop and get to the signal that actually matters: liquidity.

This week, the data finally cracked. From collapsing manufacturing numbers to ugly durable goods orders, the economic engine is coughing. And while Powell’s still trying to play it cool, the bond market isn’t buying it.

If you're looking for clear answers on where Bitcoin stands in the cycle, this is your briefing.

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🧠 The Big Picture: A Violent Snapback Coming?

For the first time in nearly a year, Bitcoin has decoupled hard from global M2 liquidity — we're nearly 24% below where the macro would place us. The last time we saw this kind of divergence?

📈 September 2024.
📈 –20% deviation.
📈 +96% rally followed.

If liquidity remains king — and it is — then we’re due for either a violent correction up… or something under the hood has changed.

🧾 This Week’s Data Breakdown: It’s Getting Soft

Richmond Manufacturing Index:
–20. A straight nosedive. Recession energy. Weak manufacturing = more pressure on the Fed to pivot. Good for Bitcoin.

Flash Manufacturing PMI:
49.5. Below 50 = contraction. Big miss. Another canary down in the industrial coal mine.

Durable Goods Orders:
–9.3%. Demand destruction. The economy’s largest spenders (businesses) are pumping the brakes.

Flash Services PMI:
Came in hot — the one bright spot. But it just gives the Fed more cover to drag their feet.

Existing & New Home Sales:
Cooling, but still lagging. Housing is always the last domino to fall — we’re not there yet.

⚙️ The Bitcoin Macro Regime Score

Nothing has changed — and that’s the point. The system still reads Risk-On, with no top in sight.

🔍 On-Chain: Retail Just Got Slapped

Retail finally stepped in… and promptly got nuked. Exactly what you want to see before the next leg up.

Long-Term Holder vs Short-Term Holder behavior has reset cleanly. Sharpe Ratio is back near zero — a bullish reset.

IFP still flashing bearish since 96K. That alone tells you everything about how broken some indicators are in this environment.

🎭 The Fed, Trump & Peak Political Slop

We’ve got the President of the United States calling out Jerome Powell’s building renovation budget — while simultaneously saying rates are too high.

We are deep in clown world territory… and Bitcoin doesn’t wait for the circus to end.

https://x.com/HansMahncke/status/1948481664633418181

💥 Final Thoughts: The Cycle Continues

This week’s data screams stagflation pressure. Manufacturing is cracking, housing’s cooling, and durable goods got wrecked. The only things holding the Fed back are the labor market and services PMI — but those are late-cycle survivors.

If you're feeling shaken by 115K prints and Twitter meltdowns, zoom out. If your thesis hasn’t changed — act accordingly.

Remember: Volatility is the price of admission. Liquidity is the real signal.

Remember your thesis when price is down.

🔗 Missed the Full Video? Watch it Here:

📺 Durden’s Bitcoin Macro War Room: The Fed Blinked — What Now?

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✍️ Let me know your thoughts. Are we setting up for a liquidity-induced vertical, or has Bitcoin finally decoupled for good?

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Free Indicators
🔎 Global M2 Tracker
🔎 Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker

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Until next week — stay sharp.
Durden out.
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