I’ve been building something behind the scenes for the past few weeks that I’m genuinely excited about.
For those of you who’ve been following the signal updates and regime calls, that’s not going away. But I’ve always wanted to give you more than just “risk-on” or “risk-off.” More than just “bullish” or “bearish” trends. I wanted to show you why.
Here’s what’s inside:
Positioning Model: 7 indicators running an [institutional grade] peak/trough framework. Percentile rankings across policy risk, credit spreads, equity put/call, rolling volatility and more. It tells you when markets are crowded and correction risk is elevated, before the correction.
Macro Weather: SAAR momentum across Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and Fiscal cycles. Each one scored with a tailwind/headwind reading and rolled into an asset class outlook. Think of it as the macro weather forecast for your portfolio.
Global Liquidity: Global M2 money supply tracked across 21 economies, plotted against Bitcoin with rate-of-change analysis. The liquidity pulse that drives risk assets, visualized in real time.
Financial Stress: Four panels monitoring the plumbing that actually matters: SOFR-EFFR spreads (funding/liquidity plumbing stress), VIX (equity fear), Treasury volatility (dealer balance sheet stress), and DXY with trend overlays (dollar wrecking ball risk).
Plus manual regime signals: Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation, Deflation… and BTC + Gold trend overlay signals visible across every page.
This isn’t a Bloomberg terminal. It’s not trying to be. It’s the exact dashboard I use every day to get a high level ‘macro weather’ report, distilled down to what actually moves the needle.
I’m putting the finishing touches on it over the next couple of weeks. When it launches, it’ll be available to paid subscribers for $7/month. Less than your morning coffee.
It will be available on DurdenBTC.com & the best part? You won’t need to do anything.. it automatically syncs with Substack, if you’re a paid sub you’ll enter your Substack e-mail & receive a login link. Easy peasy.
Free subscribers: you’ll still get the signal updates and deep dives. That’s not changing. But if you’ve ever wanted to see the full picture behind the calls, this is it.
More details soon. Stay tuned.
— Durden out.
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