Goldilocks Returns & My Dual Trend Bitcoin Signal is Now Free

Executive Summary & Important Highlights

The data has spoken, and the message is loud: The path of least resistance is up.

This week, the “Goldilocks” (inflation down, growth up) narrative roared back to life with a vengeance. We are seeing manufacturing data bottoming, inflation cooling faster than expected, and liquidity signals pointing toward a massive repricing in risk assets.

Bitcoin Trend: Bullish or Bearish?

Status: 🟢 BULLISH

We remain long. We bought the breakout on the trend signal last week, and despite the recent chop, the structure remains intact.

We hold the line until the Gaussian volatility trend signal flips bearish.

The “Cheat Code” (New Free Indicator) I’ve officially released a ‘simpler’ version of the above tool for public use. It’s a volatility-adjusted trend system I use to filter out the noise. This isn’t a mean-reversion tool; it’s a pure trend-capture system.

The Backtest (Since 2018):

• Profit Factor: 3.2

• Win Rate: 42% (Standard for trend following; we cut losers fast, let winners run).

• Result: Beats “Buy & Hold” over the last 2.5 cycles with significantly lower drawdowns.

Additional Data: The “Spicy” Charts

This is where things get interesting. While Bitcoin chops, two massive signals just flashed.

1. The “Altcoin” Capitulation Signal The Top 200 Crypto Index just printed an extreme reading on the 365-day New Lows indicator. We have only seen this level of capitulation twice in history:

• Q1 2019 (Market Bottom)

• Q3 2022 (Market Bottom)

Is the bottom finally in for Alts? The risk/reward here is becoming incredibly asymmetric.

2. The Liquidity Gap Charts from Julian Bittel and Alpha Xtracts are highlighting a massive divergence. Global liquidity (M2, Liquidity Flow Index) is ripping higher, but Bitcoin is lagging. Historically, this gap closes violently.

If Bitcoin plays catch-up to the current liquidity levels, these models suggest a target of $120k - $160k is not just possible, but probable.

Source:

Final Thoughts

The Fed might be behind the curve, but the market is forward-looking.

We have long-term holders accumulating, short-term tourists capitulating, and a macro dashboard that is practically glowing green. I don’t trade based on “vibes” or what the gargoyles at the central bank say: I trade the system.

And right now? The system says HOLD.

Access the Free Indicator here: Dual Signal Trend Sentinel

For this weeks full video breakdown:

⚔️ Stay Sharp

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💥 Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.

— Durden out.

✊🧼