The Week in Bitcoin
Bitcoin closed the week +11% but the real story isn’t just the green candles. Liquidity broke out, the Fed is locked in for multiple cuts, and my Macro Dashboard just flipped to 93% risk-on.
Meanwhile, retail volume is literally negative. The herd is asleep, and that’s exactly how major legs higher begin.
Macro Data Recap
The data was a mixed bag, but with a clear bias toward easing:
JOLTS Job Openings: Slightly above expectations — labor demand still firm, inflation sticky.
Consumer Confidence: Dropped again — households are cautious, easing path clears.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Still below 50, but trending higher. Expansion phase = risk-on fuel.
ISM Prices: Cooling slightly — inflationary pressure easing, rate cut ammo for the Fedmwr.
Net effect: liquidity positive, Fed-dovish, Bitcoin bullish.
Fedwatch: Cuts Locked In
The Fed is now essentially locked in for October, with markets pricing a 25bp cut. December odds jumped to 86% for another cut, and even January shows a 40% chance of moremwr.
That’s potentially four cuts by February 2026. By June, we could see rates back at 3%.
The Fed is cornered, and Bitcoin knows it.
The Bitcoin Macro Dashboard
The system flipped hard this week:
Liquidity Regime Tracker → Bullish
Bull/Bear Market Cycle → Bullish
Stage Model → Bullish
NVT Ratio Z-Score → About to flip bullish
All together, the Macro Regime Score now sits at 93% risk-on. In past cycles, any dip into the 70s was a screaming DCA zone — this move higher confirms the bull base is locked in.
Retail Still Missing
Despite the pump, retail flow is negative. Cohort balances show small investors selling into strength, not buying. This is the opposite of a top — tops require euphoria, and right now we’ve got silence.
Tweets of the Week
🔥 On liquidation heatmaps: bears obsess over downside clusters that never get touched in mania phases. Don’t trade heatmaps like gospel — they’re just potential pivot zones.
🔥 On cycle timing: top callers are recycling 2021 playbooks. My base case? The true cycle top doesn’t come until mid-2026. Anyone betting on 2025 blow-off is fighting the wrong regime.
The Playbook
Liquidity accelerating
Fed pinned down
Retail missing
Risk-on dashboard lit green
This is not euphoria. This is compression before expansion. If you’re sidelined, you’re setting yourself up to chase.
Final Thought
Bitcoin vs Gold (vol-adjusted) shows BTC still lagging by -50%. When that gap closes, the upside is violent.
We’re early in the risk cycle. Don’t confuse early fireworks with the finale.
⚔️ Stay Sharp
Follow the Macro War Room every Friday for the only Bitcoin analysis that treats markets like the battlefield they are.
👉 DurdenBTC.com for my dashboards + TradingView scripts.
👉 YouTube: Durden’s Bitcoin Ledger for the full weekly video.
👉 X: @DurdenBTC for real-time fire.
💥 Stay sovereign. Don’t be exit liquidity.
— Durden out.
✊🧼
Not financial advice. Manage risk. The market’s real engine is liquidity.
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