What This Chart Shows
This chart overlays the year-over-year percentage change in global M2 money supply (cyan line) directly on Bitcoin's price (white line, log scale). The relationship captures how Bitcoin responds to the rate of change in global liquidity, not just the absolute level.
The top panel shows the raw overlay. When M2 YoY is rising, it indicates accelerating global liquidity — a tailwind for Bitcoin. When it's falling, the liquidity tide is going out.
The bottom panel is the Liquidity Momentum detector. It uses a 30-day EMA vs 365-day EMA crossover on the M2 YoY data to classify the regime as bullish (green background, 30 EMA above 365 EMA) or bearish (red background). The info box shows the current M2 YoY percentage, both EMA values, and the regime label.
How to Read It
The regime shading in the lower panel is the key signal. Green zones (bullish liquidity momentum) have historically aligned with Bitcoin's strongest rally phases. The crossover from red to green marks the inflection point where global liquidity momentum shifts from contracting to expanding — a leading indicator for Bitcoin trend changes.
Watch for the 30 EMA crossing above the 365 EMA while M2 YoY itself is positive and rising. That combination has preceded every major Bitcoin bull run.
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