Skin In The Game
How my own book is actually sized.
No theory. This is the core-satellite model I run my own capital on — and the same discipline the systems are built around. The engines govern the 97%. The Scanner gets a contained 3%. No exceptions to the bands.
How the Three Pillars Fit
One philosophy, three jobs. The Core is the boring engine that compounds and survives. The Sandbox is the contained outlet for speculation — small, sized, and wrapped in the same risk discipline. The Foundation is the worldview underneath both: cut the left tail, accept giving up the tip-top, win on the sequence of returns. Pick your door above — or see how they stack.
Core · 97% — the boring engine that compounds
Arsenal is a family. BTC, ETH, Gold, SPY, QQQ and nine US sector ETF engines are live in the members dashboard. Signals updated daily.
Sandbox · 3% — structured speculation, contained
Foundation · Underneath all three: the 8th Rule and the thesis — cut the left tail, win on the sequence of returns.
Charts, Research & Macro Data
Live Bitcoin models, macro economic charts, and weekly research.. all free, no login required. Start with the Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator for a one-glance read on where we are in the cycle, check where price sits versus its 200-day moving average, or see how Bitcoin tracks the ISM manufacturing cycle.
Bitcoin Charts
Harmonic Oscillator, Power Law, Global Liquidity, 200DMA Quantile, Fear Premium, and M2 overlay.. updated daily.
Macro Charts
ISM vs Payrolls, labor force participation, overtime hours, lending standards, and business cycle indicators.
Research
60+ macro research articles covering regime signals, liquidity analysis, on-chain data, and systematic strategy deep-dives.
Live Data. Real Edge.
Paid subscribers get a live members dashboard with the MRE v06 engine, the Arsenal family of trend signals, and US sector reads.. refreshed daily before markets open. Screenshot below the cards.
Macro Regime Engine v06
Live regime classification (Goldilocks / Reflation / Inflation / Deflation), 26-voter breakdown, and current SPY position size. The full backtest history and seven forward tests are one click away.
LiveArsenal Engines
Standalone trend signals for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, SPY and QQQ.. each with a three-state position read (100% / 50% / 0%), diagnostic chart, and full backtest scorecard.
LiveUS Factor Bets — Sector Heatmap
A 3×3 grid covering all nine US sector ETFs (XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY). Each tile shows the engine’s current read; click a tile for the diagnostic chart.
LiveMacro Weather
SAAR momentum across Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy. Gives you a deeper understanding of what headwins & tailwinds are driving the current macro environment.
LiveGlobal Liquidity
Global M2 money supply vs Bitcoin with rate-of-change analysis across 21 economies in real time.
LiveFinancial Stress
SOFR-EFFR, VIX, bond stress (MOVE proxy), and DXY strength. The four stress gauges that matter for sizing risk under the MRE.
LiveMembers Only Access Preview
A sneak peak into the members only area where you have access to everything listed above.
Signature Moments
The engine doesn't predict crashes. It measures the macro environment turning hostile — credit spreads widening, volatility spiking, safety assets bidding — and steps aside before the waterfall. Specific dates, not summaries.
FEB 20, 2020 · COVID
MRE went risk-off Feb 20. SPX fell −34% over the next month. Re-entered May 2020, into the recovery.
NOV 2021 · THE 2022 BEAR
Exited November 2021. SPX fell ~25% through the rate shock. Back in January 2023, early.
DEC 2007 · GFC
Exited December 2007. SPX fell −56%. Flat through the entire waterfall, re-entered April 2009.
SEP 2000 · DOT-COM
Exited September 2000. SPX fell ~49% over two years. Re-entered near the bottom, December 2002.
Three Steps
Subscribe Free
Join on Substack. Get signal updates, strategy deep-dives, and macro regime commentary delivered to your inbox.
Upgrade for $7/mo
Unlock all three systems on one dashboard: the MRE regime engine, the Arsenal suite (BTC, ETH, Gold, SPY, QQQ), the US sector heatmap, the Daily Altcoin Scanner, plus macro weather, liquidity, and stress gauges.
Execute
Use the regime signals and live data to size your risk. Full position when conditions are green, scale down when they're not.
Free vs Paid
Everything runs through Substack. Free gets you in the door. Paid unlocks the full dashboard for the price of a coffee.
Free
- Strategy breakdowns & deep dives
- Macro regime commentary
- Members dashboard access
- Live positioning & macro weather
- Financial stress & liquidity charts
- Arsenal engines & US sector heatmap
Paid
- Everything in Free
- Full members dashboard access
- MRE v06 live regime engine + vote breakdown
- Arsenal engines: BTC, ETH, Gold, SPY & QQQ signals
- US Factor Bets.. nine-sector ETF heatmap
- Daily Altcoin Scanner.. the 3% Sandbox
- Macro weather (Growth, Inflation, Monetary)
- Global liquidity, financial stress, portfolio snapshot
- Immediate Substack alerts on every signal change
Go Deeper
If you want to understand how the systems actually work — and the macro frameworks they sit inside — these long-form guides cover the full thesis. Each one stands alone; together they're the curriculum.
Macro Regime & Bitcoin
How a 25+ asset voting system classifies the macro environment — Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation, Deflation — and how each regime maps to a Bitcoin allocation stance.
Read the guide →Bitcoin Buy & Sell Signals
The trend stack that fires the actual entries: Arsenal BTC's three-state regime plus the 8th Rule's volatility-adjusted overlay. When to press, when to defend, when to flatten.
Read the guide →Bitcoin Drawdown Management
How to size positions so a 30% drawdown isn't a portfolio-ending event. Vol-adjusted sleeves, position scaling, and why staying in the game beats being right.
Read the guide →Global M2 & Bitcoin
The 84–107 day lag between global money supply expansion and Bitcoin's price response. Read the leading liquidity wave instead of reacting to the chart.
Read the guide →Bitcoin & the ISM PMI Cycle
How Bitcoin tracks the ISM Manufacturing cycle, where it cleanly diverges, and why ISM belongs in your regime input list — not your timing toolkit.
Read the guide →Trend Following on Bitcoin
The systematic playbook: small losses on the fakeouts, oversized gains when the real move shows up. Why this style works even with a sub-50% win rate.
Read the guide →