Two engines. Five assets. Sized by risk, not by hope.

One Basket. Two Engines.

One philosophy, one portfolio. A volatility-targeted basket of five assets where every sleeve is sized by inverse volatility — a 30% Bitcoin move and a 1% S&P move are sized to move the book by the same amount. The Macro Regime Engine drives the equities; the 8th Rule drives the diversifiers; flat sleeves roll to cash in USFR. The Sandbox (the Altcoin Scanner) is the contained 3% satellite. Underneath it all: cut the left tail, win on the sequence of returns.

Core · 97% — The Vol-Targeted Basket

$100k → $513k since 2018

Five assets, two engines, sized by risk parity. BTC, ETH & Gold from the 8th Rule; SPY & QQQ from the MRE; cash in USFR when sleeves go flat. Rebalanced on a >2% drift band — about 45 times a year, not daily churn. The point isn’t the biggest number in a bull run; it’s a 21.5% CAGR carried with a −10% worst drawdown and a 0.27 beta to stocks.

+21.5% CAGR 2.04 Sharpe 2.13 Calmar −10% Max DD 0.27 Beta

Backtest since 2018 — a benign-regime sample, shown for transparency, not a promise. Calibrate to the floor: live expectations are Calmar ~1.0–1.5, drawdowns ~−10% to −15%.

The Two Engines — the proof behind the basket

Equities · SPY + QQQ

Macro Regime Engine (MRE)

26 macro voters across growth, inflation, duration, and FX.. condensed into four regimes (Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation, Deflation) and a position: 100% / 50% / 0%. The same engine reads the Nasdaq as cleanly as the S&P, so it drives both SPY and QQQ. 23 years of backtest, seven forward tests, zero failures.

+11.37% CAGR 1.02 Sharpe 0.87 Calmar −13.09% Max DD

Full breakdown →

Diversifiers · BTC + ETH + Gold

The 8th Rule — one frozen config

One frozen parameter set applied unchanged to all three diversifiers — no per-asset tuning. A trend ladder: FLAT (0%) / PROBE (25%) / FULL (100%). The thesis: a robust, un-tuned config that generalizes beats a stack of hand-tuned engines you can’t trust out-of-sample. That’s why it holds up in walk-forward where tuned models break.

BTC Calmar 1.50 ETH Calmar 1.03 Gold Calmar 0.34 one config all three

Full breakdown →

One config, three diversifiers. The same frozen 8th-Rule settings run on BTC, ETH and Gold — then inverse-vol sizing decides how much of each the basket holds.

Sandbox · 3% — structured speculation, contained

Foundation · The worldview underneath it all — the thesis: cut the left tail, size by risk, win on the sequence of returns.

Charts, Research & Macro Data

Live Bitcoin models, macro economic charts, and weekly research.. all free, no login required. Start with the Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator for a one-glance read on where we are in the cycle, check where price sits versus its 200-day moving average, or see how Bitcoin tracks the ISM manufacturing cycle.

Live Data. Real Edge.

Paid subscribers get a live members dashboard: the vol-targeted basket with today’s target allocation and rebalance flag, both engines (MRE + 8th Rule), and US sector reads.. refreshed daily before markets open. Screenshot below the cards.

Members Only Access Preview

A sneak peak into the members only area where you have access to everything listed above.

Signature Moments

The engine doesn't predict crashes. It measures the macro environment turning hostile — credit spreads widening, volatility spiking, safety assets bidding — and steps aside before the waterfall. Specific dates, not summaries.

See the full crash-by-crash breakdown in the thesis →

Three Steps

Free vs Paid

Everything runs through Substack. Free gets you in the door. Paid unlocks the full dashboard for the price of a coffee.

Go Deeper

If you want to understand how the systems actually work — and the macro frameworks they sit inside — these long-form guides cover the full thesis. Each one stands alone; together they're the curriculum.