Systematic Risk Management

Survival Is Alpha

Live macro regime signals. Full portfolio positioning. Exclusive TradingView indicators. Delivered the week before the market moves.

Two backtested systems for S&P 500 and Bitcoin — no discretion, no hope trades. Just math.

Join on Substack — free signal updates. Paid subscribers get the full dashboard for $7/mo.

+725%
MRE Return
S&P 500 · 26 yrs
~65.5%
8th Rule CAGR
Bitcoin · 12 yrs
14.78
Profit Factor
MRE · 74% win rate
-3.4%
Worst Loss
MRE · 38 trades
The Systems

Two Systems, One Philosophy

S&P 500
Macro Regime Engine
Macro Regime Engine on TradingView — regime overlay with trade markers on S&P 500
20+ macro indicators across growth, inflation, monetary policy, and global liquidity — condensed into one binary decision: risk-on or risk-off. +725% over 26 years. Every major crash dodged.
14.78 PF 74% WR -3.4% worst 38 trades
Full breakdown →
Bitcoin
The Eighth Rule
The 8th Rule on TradingView — dual-speed trend system on Bitcoin
Dual-speed trend indicator combining Gaussian Volatility with Volume-Adjusted Trend Strength. Catches the big moves, exits before drawdowns gut the portfolio. ~65.5% CAGR over 12 years.
4.62 PF 70% WR -24.1% DD 56 trades
Full breakdown →
What You Get

Live Data. Real Edge.

Paid subscribers get a live members-only dashboard with four institutional-grade tools, updated every 6 hours from FRED, CFTC, and global M2 data feeds.

Positioning Model

FRED + CFTC percentile rankings across 7 indicators. Know when markets are crowded and correction risk is elevated.

Live

Macro Weather

29 indicators across Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and Fiscal cycles with asset class outlook.

Live

Global Liquidity

Global M2 money supply vs Bitcoin with rate-of-change analysis across 21 economies in real time.

Live

Financial Stress

VIX, Treasury volatility (MOVE proxy), credit spreads, and DXY strength. The four stress gauges that matter for risk sizing.

Live

Plus manual regime signals (Goldilocks / Reflation / Inflation / Deflation) and BTC + Gold trend overlays updated by @DurdenBTC.

How It Works

Three Steps

01

Subscribe Free

Join on Substack. Get signal updates, strategy deep-dives, and macro regime commentary delivered to your inbox.

02

Upgrade for $7/mo

Unlock the live members dashboard: positioning data, macro weather, liquidity charts, stress gauges, and the 8th Rule indicator.

03

Execute

Use the regime signals and live data to size your risk. Full position when conditions are green, scale down when they're not.

Pricing

Free vs Paid

Everything runs through Substack. Free gets you in the door. Paid unlocks the full dashboard for the price of a coffee.

Free

$0/month
  • Signal updates (risk-on / risk-off)
  • Strategy breakdowns & deep dives
  • Macro regime commentary
  • Members dashboard access
  • Live positioning & macro weather
  • Financial stress & liquidity charts
  • Full 8th Rule indicator access
Subscribe Free
Most Popular

Paid

$7/month
Less than a Starbucks coffee
  • Everything in Free
  • Full members dashboard access
  • Live positioning model (FRED + CFTC)
  • Macro weather & asset outlook
  • Global liquidity & M2 tracking
  • Financial stress dashboard (VIX, MOVE, DXY)
  • Full 8th Rule indicator + signals
  • Immediate Substack signal alerts (2–4/yr equities, 5–10/yr BTC)

Start with a free subscription

Upgrade to paid anytime for $7/month to unlock the full dashboard.

Read the full thesis: Survival Is Alpha →