Systematic Risk Management

Survival Is Alpha

Two rule-based systems for S&P 500 and Bitcoin that truncate left-tail risk, protect the compounding base, and let the math do the rest. No discretion. No hope trades.

Join on Substack. Free signal updates. Paid subscribers get the full dashboard.

+692%
Strategy Return
vs +429% Buy & Hold
-3.34%
Max Drawdown
vs -56% Buy & Hold
26 yrs
Backtested
1999 – 2025
17:1
Profit Factor
Risk-adjusted edge
Members Dashboard

Live Data. Real Edge.

Paid subscribers get access to a live members-only dashboard with four institutional-grade tools, updated every 6 hours from FRED, CFTC, and global M2 data feeds.

Positioning Model

7-indicator crash risk assessment using the 42Macro peak/trough framework. FRED + CFTC percentile rankings tell you when markets are crowded and correction risk is elevated.

Live

Macro Weather

SAAR momentum across Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and Fiscal cycles. Identifies tailwinds and headwinds for risk assets with asset class outlook.

Live

Global Liquidity

Global M2 money supply vs Bitcoin with rate-of-change analysis. Track the liquidity pulse driving risk assets across 21 economies in real time.

Live

Financial Stress

Real-time monitoring of SOFR-EFFR spreads, VIX, Treasury volatility (MOVE proxy), and DXY strength. The four stress gauges that matter most for risk sizing.

Live

Plus manual regime signals (Goldilocks / Reflation / Inflation / Deflation) and BTC + Gold trend overlays updated by @DurdenBTC — visible across every page.

Pricing

Free vs Paid

Everything runs through Substack. Free gets you in the door. Paid unlocks the full dashboard for the price of a coffee.

Free

$0/month
  • Signal updates (risk-on / risk-off)
  • Strategy breakdowns & deep dives
  • Macro regime commentary
  • Members dashboard access
  • Live positioning & macro weather
  • Financial stress & liquidity charts
  • Full 8th Rule indicator access
Subscribe Free
Most Popular

Paid

$7/month
Less than a Starbucks coffee
  • Everything in Free
  • Full members dashboard access
  • Live positioning model (FRED + CFTC)
  • Macro weather & asset outlook
  • Global liquidity & M2 tracking
  • Financial stress dashboard (VIX, MOVE, DXY)
  • Full 8th Rule indicator + signals
The Systems

Two Systems, One Philosophy

S&P 500
Macro Regime Engine
Multi-asset voting system polling 20+ global assets. Binary decision: fully invested or cash. Dodged the dot-com crash, GFC, COVID, and 2022 bear.
View System Details →
Bitcoin
The Eighth Rule
Volatility-regime overlay calibrated for Bitcoin's unique return distribution. Only long during confirmed bullish trends. Exits on full reversal, not chop.
View System Details →
How It Works

Three Steps

01

Subscribe

Join on Substack for free. Get signal updates and strategy deep-dives delivered to your inbox.

02

Upgrade for $7/mo

Unlock the full members dashboard: live positioning data, macro weather, liquidity charts, stress gauges, and the 8th Rule indicator.

03

Execute

Use the regime signals and live data to size your risk. Full position when conditions are green, scale down when they're not.

Start with a free subscription

Upgrade to paid anytime for $7/month to unlock the full dashboard.

Read the full thesis: Survival Is Alpha →