What This Chart Shows
The Fear Premium is a composite index that answers one question: how scared is the market relative to fundamentals? It blends four independent fair value models — Realized Price, Power Law fair value, MVRV Z-Score, and M2 Liquidity fair value — into a single 0-to-100 fear gauge.
The top panel plots Bitcoin's price on a log scale against all four fair value lines: Realized Price (cyan), Power Law fair value (pink dashed), and M2 Liquidity fair value (yellow dotted). The info box shows the current Fear Premium reading, the regime label (Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, Extreme Greed), and the individual deviations against each model.
The bottom panel is the Fear Premium oscillator. Readings above 60 indicate fear territory — price is below what the models collectively say it should be. Above 80 is extreme fear, historically the highest-conviction buying zone. Below 20 indicates extreme greed, where price has outrun all fundamental anchors.
How to Read It
Extreme Fear (80+) has historically aligned with cycle bottoms and capitulation events. The individual model deviations in the info box let you see which fair value anchor price is cheapest against. When price is discounted against all four simultaneously, you're looking at a convergence of value signals that's historically rare and high-conviction.
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