What This Chart Shows
The Bitcoin Power Law is a log-log regression of price against time since Bitcoin's genesis block. With an R² of 0.961, it remains one of the most statistically robust long-term valuation models for Bitcoin. The model produces a fair value corridor that captures over 96% of all historical price action.
The chart has three panels. The top panel plots Bitcoin's price on a logarithmic scale against the power law regression with color-coded valuation bands ranging from deep value (green) through fair value to bubble territory (magenta). An inset zooms into the last 90 days for granularity.
The middle panel shows the Power Law Oscillator, which normalizes price position within the model's corridor on a 0-to-100 scale. Low readings historically correspond to generational buying opportunities; readings above 80 have marked cycle tops.
The bottom panel is a forward-return distribution grouped by valuation zone. It shows the median 1-year forward return and win rate for each zone — deep value has historically delivered +236% median returns with a 100% win rate, while bubble zones show negative median returns.
How to Read It
Check the oscillator reading and the valuation zone label in the top-right info box. A "Deep Value" or "Value" reading, combined with an oscillator below 20, has historically been the highest-probability long entry. The forward-return bar chart at the bottom quantifies this edge.
The 2-year fair value projection is shown near the bottom of the price chart, giving a forward estimate of where the power law center line will be.
For a sharper read on cycle position, the Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator sits on top of this same power-law equilibrium — it models Bitcoin's price as a damped oscillation around the corridor, with decaying amplitude as the asset matures. The two charts read best as a pair: the power law tells you the fair-value zone, the harmonic oscillator tells you where in the cycle you are within that zone.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin Power Law?
The Bitcoin Power Law is a mathematical model that describes Bitcoin's price growth as a power function of time. On a log-log scale, Bitcoin's price follows a remarkably straight line with an R² of 0.961 — meaning the model explains over 96% of all historical price variation. The model produces a fair value corridor that narrows over time as Bitcoin matures, with defined zones from deep value to bubble territory.
What is Bitcoin's Power Law fair value today?
The live chart above shows today's Power Law fair value, current price deviation, oscillator reading, and valuation zone. The info box in the top-right corner updates daily from live price data. The 2-year projection shows where the model expects fair value to be in the future.
Is the Bitcoin Power Law model accurate?
With an R² of 0.961, the Power Law is one of the most statistically robust long-term Bitcoin valuation models available. It has correctly captured over 96% of all historical price action since Bitcoin's genesis block. The model is most useful for identifying relative value zones (deep value vs bubble) rather than predicting exact prices. Historical forward returns by valuation zone are shown in the bottom panel of the chart.
What is Bitcoin Power Law oscillator?
The Power Law Oscillator normalizes Bitcoin's position within the model's fair value corridor on a 0-to-100 scale. Readings below 20 have historically marked generational buying opportunities with median 1-year forward returns above +200%. Readings above 80 have marked cycle tops. The oscillator strips out the long-term growth trend to show pure valuation positioning.
Related Guides