What This Chart Shows
The Bitcoin Power Law is a log-log regression of price against time since Bitcoin's genesis block. With an R² of 0.961, it remains one of the most statistically robust long-term valuation models for Bitcoin. The model produces a fair value corridor that captures over 96% of all historical price action.
The chart has three panels. The top panel plots Bitcoin's price on a logarithmic scale against the power law regression with color-coded valuation bands ranging from deep value (green) through fair value to bubble territory (magenta). An inset zooms into the last 90 days for granularity.
The middle panel shows the Power Law Oscillator, which normalizes price position within the model's corridor on a 0-to-100 scale. Low readings historically correspond to generational buying opportunities; readings above 80 have marked cycle tops.
The bottom panel is a forward-return distribution grouped by valuation zone. It shows the median 1-year forward return and win rate for each zone — deep value has historically delivered +236% median returns with a 100% win rate, while bubble zones show negative median returns.
How to Read It
Check the oscillator reading and the valuation zone label in the top-right info box. A "Deep Value" or "Value" reading, combined with an oscillator below 20, has historically been the highest-probability long entry. The forward-return bar chart at the bottom quantifies this edge.
The 2-year fair value projection is shown near the bottom of the price chart, giving a forward estimate of where the power law center line will be.
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