What This Chart Shows
The 200-day moving average is the most widely watched long-term trend indicator in all of finance. This chart goes beyond a simple 200DMA line — it builds an expanding-window quantile regression around the 200DMA to show where price sits in the full historical distribution of its relationship with that average.
The top panel displays Bitcoin's price against color-coded quantile bands. The 200DMA itself is the center reference line (blue/white), with bands expanding outward: deep green marks deep value (price far below its typical relationship with the 200DMA), while magenta/pink marks euphoria (price stretched far above).
The bottom panel is the Quantile reading — expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100. The info box shows the current quantile value, the valuation label (Deep Value, Value, Fair, Overheated, Euphoria), and the Price/200DMA ratio.
How to Read It
The quantile reading is the primary signal. Below 10% has historically marked generational bottoms — these are periods when Bitcoin is trading further below its 200DMA than it almost ever has. Above 80% typically signals overheated or euphoric conditions. The Price/200DMA ratio gives you a quick multiple: below 0.7x tends to mean deep value, above 2.0x is historically extreme.
"Expanding window" means the quantile bands use all available data up to each point in time, avoiding look-ahead bias while getting more precise as more history accumulates.
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