Is Bitcoin Above or Below Its 200-Day Moving Average Right Now?
The chart above shows the live answer. The info box reports the current Bitcoin price, the 200-day moving average value, the Price/200DMA ratio, the percentage above or below the 200DMA, and where that ratio sits in the full historical distribution (the “quantile”). All values update daily.
What This Chart Shows
The 200-day moving average is the most widely watched long-term trend indicator in all of finance. This chart goes beyond a simple 200DMA line — it builds an expanding-window quantile regression around the 200DMA to show where price sits in the full historical distribution of its relationship with that average.
The top panel displays Bitcoin's price against color-coded quantile bands. The 200DMA itself is the center reference line (blue/white), with bands expanding outward: deep green marks deep value (price far below its typical relationship with the 200DMA), while magenta/pink marks euphoria (price stretched far above).
The bottom panel is the Quantile reading — expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100. The info box shows the current quantile value, the valuation label (Deep Value, Value, Fair, Overheated, Euphoria), and the Price/200DMA ratio.
How to Read It
The quantile reading is the primary signal. Below 10% has historically marked generational bottoms — these are periods when Bitcoin is trading further below its 200DMA than it almost ever has. Above 80% typically signals overheated or euphoric conditions. The Price/200DMA ratio gives you a quick multiple: below 0.7x tends to mean deep value, above 2.0x is historically extreme.
"Expanding window" means the quantile bands use all available data up to each point in time, avoiding look-ahead bias while getting more precise as more history accumulates.
For a second cycle-position read built on a different model, see the Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator — it treats Bitcoin's price as a damped oscillation around its power-law equilibrium, so the cycle-phase signal is independent of the 200DMA. When both indicators agree (deep value on the quantile reading AND a capitulation-zone harmonic reading), that's a higher-conviction setup than either signal in isolation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin 200-day moving average?
The 200-day moving average (200DMA) is the average closing price of Bitcoin over the last 200 days. It is the most widely followed long-term trend indicator in finance. When Bitcoin trades above its 200DMA, the long-term trend is considered bullish; below it is bearish. This chart extends the basic 200DMA by building quantile bands around it to show where price sits relative to its entire historical relationship with the average.
What does the Price/200DMA ratio mean?
The Price/200DMA ratio divides the current Bitcoin price by its 200-day moving average. A ratio of 1.0 means price is exactly at the average. Below 0.7 has historically marked deep value zones, while above 2.0 signals euphoria. This ratio gives a quick, normalized read on how stretched or compressed price is relative to its long-term trend.
Is Bitcoin above or below its 200-day moving average right now?
Check the chart above for the live reading. The info box in the top-right shows the current price, 200DMA value, Price/200DMA ratio, quantile reading, and valuation zone label — updated daily from live price data.
Related Guides