DurdenBTC · Bitcoin Charts · Updated daily

Six valuation models. One Bitcoin. Read every day.

Power Law, Global Liquidity Fair Value, M2 YoY overlay, 200‑day moving average quantile regression, Fear Premium composite, and the Harmonic Oscillator. Auto-generated from live market data every morning — no opinions, just the regressions.

Models6 charts
CadenceDaily
Best R²0.961
SourceCoinGecko · FRED · on-chain
Free
Live

Editor's note: Each chart sits in its own page with the methodology spelled out. Start with the Harmonic Oscillator for a one-glance read on where we are in the cycle; the rest stack underneath.

Bitcoin Harmonic Oscillator — damped cycle model

Harmonic Oscillator

Damped harmonic oscillator applied to Bitcoin’s decaying cycle envelope. Capitulation-to-euphoria with forward-return stats.
Bitcoin Power Law chart — log regression with R²=0.961

Power Law

Log-log regression with R² = 0.961. Fair value corridor, oscillator, and forward-return distribution by valuation zone.
Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity Fair Value model

Global Liquidity Fair Value

Bitcoin priced against global M2 liquidity with R² = 0.92. Z-score valuation bands and 6-month forward returns.
Global M2 Year-over-Year change overlaid on Bitcoin price

M2 YoY Overlay

Global M2 money supply year-over-year change overlaid on BTC price. Liquidity momentum regime via 30 vs 365 EMA crossover.
Bitcoin 200-day moving average quantile regression

200DMA Quantile Regression

Where price sits relative to its own 200DMA history. Expanding-window quantile bands from deep value to euphoria.
Bitcoin Fear Premium — on-chain fair value composite

Fear Premium

Composite discount/premium vs on-chain fair value: Realized Price, Power Law, MVRV, and M2 Liquidity model blended into one fear gauge.

Go Deeper — Guides

BTC vs 200-Day MA (Live) Bitcoin & ISM PMI Macro Regime Guide Global M2 & Bitcoin