Labor & Rates
LFPR vs 5-Year Yield
Labor Force Participation Rate (4-month lead) overlaid on the 5-Year Treasury Yield. Tracks the labor-to-rates transmission mechanism.
Manufacturing Hours
Overtime Hours Z-Score
GMI Weekly Overtime Hours Worked composite Z-score across four manufacturing series. Recession shading from NBER.
Workforce Breadth
ISM vs Workforce Activity
ISM Manufacturing PMI overlaid on the GMI Early Workforce Activity Index — a composite Z-score of temp help, claims, hours, and payrolls.
Employment Leading
ISM vs NFP MoM
ISM Manufacturing PMI (2-month lead) vs Nonfarm Payrolls month-over-month change. Shows how manufacturing activity leads employment.
Credit Conditions
ISM vs Lending Standards
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs US bank lending standards — net % of banks tightening C&I loans. Credit conditions as a leading indicator.