DurdenBTC · Macro Charts · FRED · 72hr cache

Where the business cycle actually shows up.

Labor force participation against the 5-year yield, overtime hours Z-score, the GMI workforce activity composite, ISM vs payrolls, and ISM vs bank lending standards. The five charts that turn before headline GDP does.

Models5 charts
SourceFRED
RefreshEvery 72 hrs
WindowNBER-shaded
Free
Live

Editor's note: Manufacturing leads employment, employment leads GDP, lending standards lead manufacturing. Watch the leading edges — the headlines arrive late.

Labor & Rates

LFPR vs 5-Year Yield

Labor Force Participation Rate (4-month lead) overlaid on the 5-Year Treasury Yield. Tracks the labor-to-rates transmission mechanism.
Manufacturing Hours

Overtime Hours Z-Score

GMI Weekly Overtime Hours Worked composite Z-score across four manufacturing series. Recession shading from NBER.
Workforce Breadth

ISM vs Workforce Activity

ISM Manufacturing PMI overlaid on the GMI Early Workforce Activity Index — a composite Z-score of temp help, claims, hours, and payrolls.
Employment Leading

ISM vs NFP MoM

ISM Manufacturing PMI (2-month lead) vs Nonfarm Payrolls month-over-month change. Shows how manufacturing activity leads employment.
Credit Conditions

ISM vs Lending Standards

ISM Manufacturing PMI vs US bank lending standards — net % of banks tightening C&I loans. Credit conditions as a leading indicator.