LTH MVRV Z • Heat & Trend
Tracks profit stress on long-term holders and flips regimes using 30D vs 365D trend. Green = trend up, pressure easing. Red = distribution vibes.
DurdenBTC is a suite of Bitcoin Macro & On-Chain charts built for serious market operators.
The goal is simple: cut through noise, decode cycles, and give you a framework to navigate volatility with precision.
Every chart here ties back to the same foundation: liquidity, flows, and behavioral patterns that drive Bitcoin’s regime shifts. This isn’t speculation dressed as analysis. It’s a toolkit for reading the market in real time.
- 🗞️ Subscribe to the newsletter if you want the playbook.
- 📽️ Tap into the YouTube channel for the briefings.
- ⚡ And if you need more, hit me up on X (twitter) @DurdenBTC.
- 🆕 For the latest news that can move Bitcoin price check out our new Macro Wire section.
The Bitcoin Macro War Room • Bitcoin Cycle Charts
A curated set of high-signal dashboards that map Bitcoin’s cycle—FRED-based macro, liquidity (M2, Net Liquidity), dollar & rates, credit spreads, risk breadth, and on-chain metrics. Each card opens a focused, one-chart page with regime shading and plain-English notes. Clean, fast, updated daily.
Optimized Puell Multiple • Full Cycle
This optimized Puell Multiple converts miner revenue pressure into a standardized score, blending epoch and four-year windows so today’s readings are comparable to prior cycles.
AVIV Ratio • Active vs Investor Value
A flow-of-funds lens for Bitcoin. AVIV contrasts on-chain capital in motion with investors’ aggregate cost basis, highlighting frothy phases vs washed-out opportunity.
STH Realized Price • Line in the Sand
Simple, brutal, effective: above STH realized price = expansion; below = risk-off. Regime shading updates in real time.
Bull Bear Cycle Drift Signal • 30v365
Green when 30D > 365D, red when not. Early-Bull flags the inflection as the 365D turns higher — no hero trades, just trend.
Global Liquidity (M2) YoY • Bitcoin Overlay
Year-over-year change in global money supply (M2) plotted against Bitcoin. Rising liquidity growth tends to support Bitcoin uptrends, tightening cycles often align with drawdowns.
DXY Trend Filter • 233-DMA vs BTC
Rising dollar = headwind, falling dollar = tailwind. We track the USD’s 233-DMA trend: uptrend = risk-off, downtrend = risk-on for BTC.
Fed Net Liquidity Z-Score • Trend Regime
WALCL – TGA – RRP normalized and z-scored (Δ365). BTC on top, liquidity Z on bottom. Background flips green when Z-30D > Z-150D (easing), red when not (tightening).
Global Macro Risk Matrix 🚧
FRED-driven cross-asset breadth that classifies Risk-On vs Risk-Off. Components SPX, HY OAS, VIX & 7 others confirm when their 55-day trend improves. 🚧 Under construction.
Macro Wire • High Signal Macro News
Auto-refreshed every 12h from bank research & major financial outlets. Focus: ISM, DXY, inflation, liquidity (Fed/Treasury/RRP/TGA), policy (Fed/BOJ/PBOC), credit, energy, and sentiment — only what moves Bitcoin. To see all relevant news stories, please click here.
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About this feed
- Summaries are concise, bias toward liquidity/flow implications for BTC.
- 🚨 Signal badge marks items that might shift the macro regime (risk-on/off).
- This news feed is cached for 12 hours to keep it fast and rate-friendly.
🎯Planned Updates & Chart Releases
This bulleted list covers what I'm working on next so you always have something to look forward to. The work never stops, all alpha decays. We must fight to stay ahead of the herd.
- Chart optimizations for AVIV & other on-chain metrics that decay as cycles continue (see: Puell Multiple for an example).