LTH MVRV Z • Heat & Trend
Tracks profit stress on long-term holders and flips regimes using 30D vs 365D trend. Green = trend up, pressure easing. Red = distribution vibes.
DurdenBTC is a suite of Bitcoin Macro & On-Chain charts built for serious market operators.
The goal is simple: cut through noise, decode cycles, and give you a framework to navigate volatility with precision.
Every chart here ties back to the same foundation: liquidity, flows, and behavioral patterns that drive Bitcoin’s regime shifts. This isn’t speculation dressed as analysis. It’s a toolkit for reading the market in real time.
- 🗞️ Subscribe to the newsletter if you want the playbook.
- 📽️ Tap into the YouTube channel for the briefings.
- ⚡ And if you need more, hit me up on X (twitter) @DurdenBTC.
🔥Macro War Room • Charts
One chart per page. Click any card to dive in.
STH Realized Price • Line in the Sand
Simple, brutal, effective: above STH realized price = expansion; below = risk-off. Regime shading updates in real time.
DXY Trend Filter • 233-DMA vs BTC
Rising dollar = headwind, falling dollar = tailwind. We track the USD’s 233-DMA trend: uptrend = risk-off, downtrend = risk-on for BTC.
Bull Bear Cycle Drift Signal • 30v365
Green when 30D > 365D, red when not. Early-Bull flags the inflection as the 365D turns higher — no hero trades, just trend.
Fed Net Liquidity Z-Score • Trend Regime (30v150)
WALCL – TGA – RRP, normalized and z-scored (Δ365). BTC on top, liquidity Z on bottom. Background flips green when Z-30D > Z-150D (easing), red when not (tightening).
Global Liquidity (M2) YoY • Bitcoin Overlay
Year-over-year change in global broad money supply (M2) plotted against Bitcoin. Rising liquidity growth tends to support Bitcoin uptrends, while tightening cycles often align with drawdowns.
🎯Planned Updates & Chart Releases
This bulleted list covers what I'm working on next so you always have something to look forward to. The work never stops, all alpha decays. We must fight to stay ahead of the herd.
- Chart idea: BTC vs DFII10 with regime shading, plus a “sticky inflation” composite from Median CPI & Trimmed-Mean PCE to anticipate real-rate direction.