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The Philosophy
Two engines. One sandbox. One thesis.
DurdenBTC isn't a newsletter full of opinions. It's a quantitative macro framework run on a core-satellite model: two backtested engines — MRE v06 for equities, Arsenal BTC for Bitcoin — governing the core 97%, anchored in 23+ years of data and seven independent forward tests; and the Daily Altcoin Scanner running the contained 3% sandbox for structured speculation. The thesis is Survival Is Alpha: truncate the left tail, compound on a higher base, generate more terminal wealth. The engines are the implementation; the sandbox is where the dopamine lives, sized so it can't hurt you.
System One · Equities
MRE v06 — The Macro Regime Engine
A regime-based system for the S&P 500 that aggregates 26 voters across growth, inflation, duration, and FX — then condenses them into four regimes (Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation, Deflation) and one binary signal: risk-on or risk-off SPY. No predictions, no forecasts — just measurement, with symmetric hysteresis so the engine doesn't whipsaw.
Backtested on SPY from 2003 to 2026 (5,867 trading days). Held up through the 2008 GFC (+44.5% relative outperformance), the 2020 COVID crash (+26.7%), and the 2022 rate-shock drawdown. Validated against seven independent forward tests — out-of-sample, Monte Carlo, parameter sensitivity, synthetic price paths — with zero failures. See the full breakdown →
System Two · Bitcoin
Arsenal BTC — The Bitcoin Trend System
A three-state trend system for Bitcoin built on VAMS — a composite of a fast/slow SMA trend filter and a three-layer volatility regime filter (calm-bull detector, calm-bear detector, crisis detector). Output is a single vote: −2 (BEARISH), 0 (NEUTRAL), or +2 (BULLISH). Position sizing maps directly: 100% long on +2, 50% on 0, 0% on −2. No leverage, no opinion-based overrides.
Captured most of Bitcoin's upside while cutting drawdown by more than half (−34% vs −83% buy-and-hold). Validated against four standard forward tests — the OOS walk-forward verdict is honestly disclosed as WEAK (Test Sharpe 1.55 vs Train 2.93, dragged by the 2022 — 2024 bear). We don't hide failures — we name them. See the full breakdown →
System Three · The Sandbox
Daily Altcoin Scanner — The 3% Sandbox
The other 3% of the book. Every night around 8:30 PM ET the top 500 alts run through the 8th Rule across four archetype tunings (champion, defender, meme, mature) — surfacing the handful that just transitioned BEAR→PROBE or BEAR→FULL on the most recent closed bar. The Scanner finds the bets; the rules enforce the size. For the part of you that wants to swing for the fences — but only with money you've sized for the swing.
Not a tip service, not a buy signal — a mechanical transition detector you confirm yourself. No stop-loss; the position size is the risk control, sized so a zero is a rounding error. See how the Sandbox works →
Inside the Members Area
Live dashboard. Real signals. Same data the engines read.
Every paid subscriber gets a live dashboard built on FRED, on-chain feeds, and global liquidity data. No opinions — just the raw signal state of both systems plus the macro environment behind them, refreshed nightly after market close.
No contracts. No upsells. Cancel anytime.
Three systems. One subscription. $7 a month.
Less than a Starbucks coffee. More than any newsletter you'll read this year. The systems, the dashboard, the live signals, the Altcoin Scanner, the macro indicators — all of it, all the time, $7 a month. Substack handles billing; you can cancel any time from your Substack account.