Data source: BGeometrics.com · a DurdenBTC Original, ported to interactive.
What This Chart Shows
Bitcoin's price has tracked a power law — a straight line on a log-log plot of price vs age — for its entire life, with an R² near 0.96. That line is a fair value; the rainbow around it is the historical ±1σ/2σ/3σ spread.
- Price (white) vs the dashed fair value line, on a log scale, with the σ-bands and a faint 2-year projection.
- Power Law Oscillator (lower panel) rescales the deviation from fair to 0–100 using its own 5th/95th percentiles — below 10 is deep value, above 80 is bubble.
- Forward-return strip — the payoff. For each deviation zone, the median return one year later across all of history, with win rate.
How to Read It
The idea in one line: deviation from power-law fair value is one of the cleanest forward-return signals in Bitcoin. When price is deep below fair (oscillator near 0), the next year has historically been strongly positive with a near-perfect win rate; when it is stretched into the bubble zone (oscillator near 100), forward returns flip negative. The current reading and zone are in the pill on the chart, and your zone is highlighted in the strip below.
This is a base rate over cycles, not a timing trigger — price can stay cheap or expensive for months. Drag to pan, scroll to zoom, and use the toolbar to autoscale, reset, or download.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the same as your Power Law Quantile chart?
No. The Power Law Quantile chart draws quantile-regression channels. This one adds σ-bands, a percentile oscillator, and the forward-return-by-zone edge — what the deviation has actually predicted.
Why “1-year” forward return?
Each day is compared to price ~252 trading days later (the convention this model uses), grouped by that day's deviation zone. It is a historical median, not a promise.
Is this on-chain data?
No — pure price math. Just Bitcoin's price versus its own long-run trend.