Data: BGeometrics.com · model: Porkopolis Power Law · chart & styling by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
Bitcoin’s price has tracked a power law for its entire history: price ≈ a × (days since the genesis block)b, with the exponent b near 5.7. That single curving trend — the Porkopolis Power Law line — is what price has compounded along as the network has been adopted. Around it, this chart draws empirical quantile bands rather than standard deviations.
- The quantile lines (Q5–Q95) mark the multiples of the trend that price has stayed within a given percentage of the time. Q95 is the rich extreme, Q5 the cheap extreme. They are asymmetric — finance isn’t a bell curve — so the median Q50 sits below the mean trend.
- The quantile oscillator (lower panel) turns it into one 0–100 number: the percentile of where price sits in its whole historical range. Green is cheap, red is stretched.
How to Read It
Read the oscillator. Down in the green zone, price is trading near the bottom of its historical power-law range — a condition that has clustered around cycle lows. Up in the red zone, price is near the top of its range — historically euphoria and cycle tops. The power law itself is a slow, structural trend, so this is a patient cycle gauge, not an intraday tool. Like all models it is a guide, not a guarantee — the trend can bend or break.
Drag to pan and scroll to zoom; use the box-zoom tool to drag a rectangle around any region. The toolbar autoscales, resets, or downloads the chart. Hover to read price, the trend and the quantile reading together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin power law?
A fit of price to time: price ≈ a × (days since genesis)b, with b ≈ 5.7. On a log price axis it is a curving trend; on a log-log axis it is a straight line. The idea was developed by Giovanni Santostasi and popularised by Porkopolis Economics.
What are the quantile bands?
Empirical percentiles of how far price has traded above or below the power-law trend — not standard deviations. Because the distribution is skewed, the bands are asymmetric and the median sits below the mean trend.
What is the quantile oscillator?
A 0–100 reading of where price sits within its entire historical power-law range. Low (green) is cheap, high (red) is stretched.