On-chain data source: BGeometrics.com · chart & styling by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
The MVRV Z-Score is the most-cited on-chain valuation gauge for Bitcoin. It starts from the MVRV ratio — market value (today's price times the coin supply) divided by realized value (every coin valued at the price it last moved, i.e. the network's aggregate cost basis). That ratio is then expressed as a Z-Score: how many standard deviations it sits above or below its own long-run average. Zero is an average valuation; the upper bands are historically expensive, the lower bands historically cheap.
- Price and realized price sit in the top panel. When price trades down to realized price, the average holder is roughly break-even; below it, the average holder is underwater.
- The Z-Score oscillator is the bottom panel. It is the single number that summarizes how stretched the MVRV ratio is relative to its own history, in standard deviations.
- Deep value — a Z-Score down near the lower bands (−0.5σ / −1σ) has aligned with major bear-market bottoms, when price sits close to the network's cost basis.
- Euphoria — a Z-Score up at the upper bands (+1σ and above) has historically marked cycle tops, though each cycle has topped at a progressively lower reading.
How to Read It
Watch the oscillator, not the dollar price. Near or below the lower bands, Bitcoin is historically cheap relative to what the network paid for it; up near the upper bands, it is expensive. Because realized value moves slowly — coins only re-price when they actually transact — the Z-Score is a patient, cycle-scale gauge, not an intraday tool. The structural drift is that each cycle's peak Z-Score has been lower than the last, as the network matures and the cost basis grows.
Drag to pan and scroll to zoom; the toolbar in the top-right autoscales to the full history, resets the view, or downloads the chart. Hover anywhere to read price, realized price and the Z-Score for that date together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score?
It takes the MVRV ratio — market value divided by realized value (the network's aggregate cost basis) — and expresses it as a Z-Score against its own history. High readings have historically signalled tops; readings down near the lower bands have signalled bottoms.
What is realized price?
Realized price values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain rather than the current market price, approximating the network's aggregate cost basis. Price falling below realized price means the average holder is underwater.
Where does the data come from?
The MVRV Z-Score and realized price are sourced from BGeometrics.com; Bitcoin price is from our daily feed. The chart updates daily.