On-chain cost-basis models from BGeometrics.com; moving averages & Power Law from our daily price feed · composite & styling by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
Most valuation charts track one model. This one blends six into a single read. Each model estimates a Bitcoin “cost basis” or fair value — the level price tends to revert toward:
- Realized Price — the network’s aggregate cost basis.
- STH Cost Basis — the short-term holder’s average cost.
- True Market Mean — the cost basis of active investors.
- 200DMA & 200WMA — the daily and weekly trend means.
- Power Law — the long-run log-log growth trend.
For each model we find where today’s price sits in the full history of its price-to-model ratio (a 0–100% percentile). The equal-weight average of the six is the index. The shaded band on the price panel is the cheapest-to-richest model envelope.
How to Read It
The oscillator is the signal. Low (green) means price is sitting near or below almost every cost-basis model at once — a condition that has clustered around cycle lows. High (red) means price is stretched above the whole cluster — historically late-cycle territory. The middle is fair value.
Because it averages six slow-moving models, the index is a patient, cycle-scale gauge, not an intraday tool. Its edge over any single model is breadth: it only reads “cheap” when the cheapness is broad-based, which filters out one model giving a false signal on its own.
Drag to pan, scroll or box-zoom to zoom; the toolbar autoscales, resets or downloads the chart. Hover to read price, the median cost basis and the index together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index?
A composite of six cost-basis models. For each, we take the percentile of today’s price-to-model ratio across its full history; the equal-weight average of those six percentiles is the index. Low is broadly cheap, high is broadly stretched.
How is it weighted?
Equally — each model contributes one percentile and the index is their simple average, so no single model dominates.
Where does the data come from?
Realized Price, STH cost basis and True Market Mean are from BGeometrics.com; the 200DMA, 200WMA and Power Law are computed from our daily price feed. Updated daily.