What This Chart Shows
The GMI Early Workforce Activity Index is a composite Z-score built from four labor market series: Temporary Help Services Employment, Initial Jobless Claims (inverted), Average Weekly Hours (Total Private), and Total Nonfarm Payrolls. Each is normalized to its Z-score and averaged.
This composite is overlaid with the ISM Manufacturing PMI to show how labor market breadth aligns with manufacturing activity. Grey regions mark NBER recessions. The workforce index often turns before ISM does, providing early warning.
How to Read It
The dual-axis design lets you see both series in their natural units — Z-score on the left (workforce composite) and index level on the right (ISM PMI). When both are declining together, the signal is strong that the economy is weakening. A rising workforce composite with falling ISM can indicate a labor market that hasn't yet felt manufacturing weakness. ISM below 50 is contractionary territory.