The Short-Term Holders (STH) Realized Price Bull/Bear Market Indicator draws a clear line in the sand for Bitcoin trend following. It uses the average on-chain cost basis of coins held by short-term holders (typically ≤155 days) as a dynamic support/resistance level .
This tool compares BTC spot price to the STH Realized Price and shades regimes in real time. When market price holds above the STH level, it signals expansion , improving risk appetite, and supportive momentum. When price falls below the STH level, it marks risk-off conditions and vulnerability to distribution.
The result is a simple, brutal, effective signal that updates continuously—no complex parameters required. Traders, investors & analysts can use it to confirm breakouts, manage exposure during pullbacks, and anchor bias during volatile phases.
By reducing the market to one objective threshold—the short-term cohort’s cost basis—this visualization provides a disciplined, data-driven framework for timing Bitcoin’s bullish and bearish regimes.
For extra confluence check out: MVRV Z-Score and Bull Bear Cycle Drift Signal .