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DXY Trend Filter • 233-DMA vs BTC

Rising dollar = headwind, falling dollar = tailwind. We track the USD’s 233-DMA trend: uptrend = risk-off, downtrend = risk-on for BTC.

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The DXY Trend Filter (233-DMA vs BTC) is a simple macro overlay that translates dollar strength into actionable Bitcoin risk signals. It tracks the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) against its 233-day moving average, a long-horizon trend line that smooths noise and highlights regime shifts.

When the DXY is trending above its 233-DMA, the chart shades risk-off—a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions and is typically a headwind for crypto. When the DXY rolls below its 233-DMA, the chart shades risk-on, aligning with easier conditions and stronger appetite for BTC beta.

This visualization gives traders a clean, rules-based macro filter: rising dollar = headwind, falling dollar = tailwind. Use it to time exposure, avoid false breakouts during dollar uptrends, and size into strength when the dollar downtrend confirms. Simple, brutal, effective.

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