On-chain data source: BGeometrics.com · chart & styling by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio is the total value realized on-chain each day — realized profit plus realized loss — divided by the realized cap (the network’s aggregate cost basis). It answers: how hard are holders hitting the sell side relative to the size of the asset?
- High / extreme — a lot of value is changing hands at big gains or losses. The market is finding a new equilibrium. Crucially this is non-directional: the highest readings have landed at both major tops (2017, 2021) and major bottoms (2020 COVID, 2022). It flags an inflection, not a direction.
- Very low — almost nothing is being realized: a coiled, low-activity market. Those stretches are shaded blue up to the price; historically a range expansion has often followed (direction unknown).
- The smoothing line is a 30-day EMA over the spiky raw ratio; the log axis keeps a 2015 reading and a 2026 reading comparable.
How to Read It
Watch the two ends, but read them differently. Up at the extreme line the market is at a high-volatility inflection — the current trend is likely changing, but the ratio does not tell you which way (it has topped and bottomed there). Down at the very-low line the market is coiled: realized value has dried up, and a range expansion has often followed — that is the shaded blue band, and the more distinctive signal.
Because realized value is driven by coins actually moving, this is a structural, cycle-scale gauge rather than an intraday tool. It is a measure of activity and stress, not direction on its own — read it alongside trend and other on-chain context.
Drag to pan, scroll or box-zoom to zoom; the toolbar autoscales, resets or downloads the chart. Hover to read price and the ratio together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sell-Side Risk Ratio?
Realized profit plus realized loss, divided by realized cap. It scales the total value being realized on-chain by the size of the network, so eras are comparable.
Is a high reading bullish or bearish?
Neither on its own. High readings mark a high-volatility inflection that has appeared at both major tops (2017, 2021) and bottoms (2020, 2022) — it says the trend is likely changing, not which way. The directional-neutral signal is the very-low coiled state (shaded blue), where a big move has often followed.
Where does the data come from?
The ratio is sourced directly from BGeometrics.com; price is from our daily feed. Smoothing and the extreme bands are computed in the browser. Updated daily.