On-chain data source: BGeometrics.com · chart & styling by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is realized USD profit divided by realized USD loss each day — the balance of gains versus losses that holders actually lock in when coins move on-chain.
- Ratio >> 1 — holders are overwhelmingly booking profit. Typical of strong uptrends and tops.
- Ratio << 1 — holders are overwhelmingly realizing losses. This is capitulation, typical of bottoms.
- The 30-day average (the bold line) cuts the daily noise so the regime is legible.
- Bottom alert — when the 30-day average sinks below 0.5 (losses ≈ 2× profits, sustained), the price panel shades green. It has fired at the 2019, 2020-COVID, 2022–23 and 2026 lows.
How to Read It
This is a bottom-spotting tool, not a top tool. The signal is the green shading: when realized losses dominate for a sustained stretch, the market is in capitulation, and historically that is where cycle lows have formed. It does not call the exact day — alerts have spanned weeks around a low — but it has reliably flagged the right neighbourhood.
High ratios (the upper spikes) mean heavy profit-taking; they run hot through entire uptrends rather than pinpointing a top, so we don’t treat the high side as a signal here. Read it alongside trend and other on-chain context.
Drag to pan, scroll or box-zoom to zoom; the toolbar autoscales, resets or downloads the chart. Hover to read price and the ratio together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio?
Total realized profit divided by total realized loss on a given day. Above 1 means gains dominate (near tops); below 1 means losses dominate (capitulation, near bottoms).
How does the bottom alert work?
We smooth the ratio with a 30-day average and fire an alert when it falls below 0.5 (sustained losses ≈ 2× profits). That has clustered at the 2019, 2020-COVID, 2022–23 and 2026 lows.
Where does the data come from?
The ratio is from BGeometrics.com; price is from our daily feed. The smoothing and alert are computed in the browser. Updated daily.