On-chain & liquidity data: BGeometrics.com · power-law & composite by DurdenBTC.
What This Chart Shows
The Fear Premium asks one question across four models at once: how cheap is Bitcoin versus what it “should” be worth?
- Top panel — price against its fair-value models: realized price, the power-law trend and the M2-liquidity fair value.
- The composite (lower panel, 0–100) blends four cheapness measures — price vs realized, vs power law, vs M2, and the MVRV Z-Score — each as an expanding historical percentile, then inverts them to a fear premium.
- Above 80 — extreme fear. Every model says cheap; the price panel shades green. Historically a high-win-rate accumulation zone.
- Below 20 — extreme greed. Price is stretched above fair value; the panel shades red. Historically where tops formed.
How to Read It
Because it uses an expanding percentile (each day is ranked only against the past, never the future), it has no hindsight bias — a reading of 88 means today is cheaper than 88% of all history up to now. When the gauge is pinned in extreme fear and every model reads a discount, the market is fearful while the fundamentals say value — the setup that has closed violently to the upside.
It is a slow, structural composite, not a timing tool. The gap between price and fair value can persist, and each model can be wrong; read it alongside trend and cycle position rather than as a standalone trigger.
Drag to pan, scroll or box-zoom to zoom; the toolbar autoscales, resets or downloads the chart. Hover to read price and the premium together.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Fear Premium?
How cheap Bitcoin is versus a blend of fair-value models (realized price, power law, MVRV Z-Score, M2 liquidity), expressed 0–100. 100 = maximum fear / deepest discount; 0 = maximum greed / richest premium.
How do you read it?
Above 80 (extreme fear) every model says cheap — historically a value zone. Below 20 (extreme greed) price is stretched above fair value — historically near tops.
Where does the data come from?
Realized price, MVRV Z-Score and global M2 from BGeometrics.com; price from our daily feed. The power-law fit and composite are computed in the browser. Updated daily.