Global Macro Risk Matrix • Share of Confirming Markets distills cross-asset macro signals into a simple, binary market regime for Bitcoin: Risk-On vs Risk-Off. This FRED-driven breadth indicator counts how many key markets are improving—equities, credit spreads, yield-curve slope, U.S. dollar, volatility, liquidity, and financial-stress gauges—and plots the share of confirming components beneath BTC price.
The composite uses 55-day directional changes for each input (e.g., SPX return > 0, HY OAS tightening, 10y–2y steepening, DXY & VIX falling, Net Liquidity rising, NFCI/STLFSI2 easing). The share of confirms is then smoothed with an EMA(5) to reduce noise. When the smoothed share reaches our confirmation threshold, the top panel shades to indicate a supportive macro backdrop for Bitcoin.
Risk-On: EMA(5) of confirming share ≥ 0.55 (after 2 daily closes) — chart shades green .Neutral: EMA(5) between 0.33–0.55 — chart shades soft yellow/gray . (Below 0.33 is treated as Risk-Off with no shading.)
This visualization offers traders and macro analysts a clear, data-driven framework to connect macro breadth—across stocks, credit, rates, the dollar, volatility, liquidity, and stress—to Bitcoin’s trend. It’s intentionally simple, transparent, and FRED-first, making it easy to audit each signal and adapt thresholds without overfitting.